Is there a pastor shortage?

The question “is there a pastor shortage?” is likely to elicit an emotional response. It is much like the question, “should teachers get paid more?” No doubt, many people, without research or reason would immediately answer “yes” to each of these questions. But understanding is superior to emotion, and we ought to have reasons for the positions we hold.

Not surprisingly, the seminaries who train ministers believe there is a shortage of ministers. The websites of RTS, GPTS, Bob Jones, and Calvin Seminary each have articles with that contention.

Of course there are churches without pastors, but I know a number of men who are pastoring small churches and working bi-vocationally. They might contend that the churches desperately need more members. Maybe there is not a pastor shortage, but a member shortage?

How can we determine if there indeed a pastor shortage? We need data. To answer the question (or attempt to), let’s look at some cold hard facts; the actual pastoral vacancy rates in various denominations.

The “OPC Vacant Pulpit List as of May 8, 2026” lists 30 vacant pulpits. The OPC reported exactly 300 local churches in the 2025 GA report. So 10% of churches are without a pastor.

The URCNA website presently lists 8 vacancies in the United States and 10 in Canada. With 140 churches, the denomination has a pastoral vacancy rate of almost 13%.

A friend of mine in the Protestant Reformed Church tells me that there are 5 vacancies there, in a denomination of hardly three dozen churches. The official number seems to be 33 churches. That is a vacancy rate of 15%.

There are only 7 vacancies listed on the ARP website. That is out of a total of some 265 churches. A vacancy rate of less than 3%.

There are also 7 vacancies listed on the RCUS website. With 47 churches, they have a vacancy rate of almost 15%.

The RPCNA has 14 open pulpits out of 93 congregations; a 15% vacancy rate.

None of these vacancy rates in the Reformed world are as high as some other traditions. The Lutheran Church Missouri Synod, according to a recent article has 996 vacancies and a nearly 20% vacancy rate.

In all of this, one must wonder how many of these churches are able to support a pastor. It is one thing to note a vacancy, it is another to show that there is sufficient demand to hire a man. We can look at the OPC statistics to help answer that question.

For the 30 OPC vacancies, here is their membership as listed in 2024 GA Report:

Providence (Huntsville, AL) 97 (47 communicant, 48 noncommunicant)

Harvest (Yuma, AZ) 49 (36 communicant, 13 noncommunicant)

Emmanuel (Markdale, ON) 52 (30 communicant, 22 noncommunicant)

Corona (Corona, CA) 73 (54 communicant, 19 noncommunicant)

Covenant (San Jose) 168 (142 communicant, 26 noncommunicant)

Grace (Modesto, CA) 35 (33 communicant, 2 noncommunicant)

Grace (Carson, CA) 37 (32 communicant, 5 noncommunicant)

Harvest (San Marcos, CA) 146 (112 communicant, 34 noncommunicant)

Redeemer (Santa Maria, CA) 36 (32 communicant, 4 noncommunicant)

Keys (Key West, FL) 14 (9 communicant, 5 noncommunicant)

Covenant (Orland Park, IL) 190 (134 communicant, 56 noncommunicant)

Providence (Rockford, IL) 57 (38 communicant, 19 noncommunicant)

Neon Reformed (Neon, KY) 46 (33 communicant, 13 noncommunicant)

Providence (Louisville, KY) Not listed (New Mission Work)

Living Hope (Brunswick, ME) 66 (53 communicant, 13 noncommunicant)

Cape Cod (West Barnstable, MA) 92 (78 communicant, 14 noncommunicant)

Immanuel Chapel (Upton, MA) 67 (52 communicant, 15 noncommunicant)

Bethel Reformed (Fremont, MI) 72 (50 communicant, 22 noncommunicant)

Chain-O-Lakes (Central Lake, MI) 33 (16 communicant, 17 noncommunicant)

Little Farms Chapel (Coopersville, MI) 283 (202 communicant, 81 noncommunicant)

Cedar OPC (Jenison, MI) 219 (146 communicant, 73 noncommunicant)

Calvary (Phillipsburg, NJ) 78 (52 communicant, 26 noncommunicant)

First (Portland, OR) 120 (104 communicant, 16 noncommunicant)

Trinity (Newberg, OR) 44 (34 communicant, 10 noncommunicant)

Faith (Indiana, PA) 32 (30 communicant, 2 noncommunicant)

Living Hope (Allentown, PA) 115 (90 communicant, 25 noncommunicant)

Calvary (Middletown, PA) 76 (57 communicant, 19 noncommunicant)

Winner (Winner, SD) 60 (45 communicant, 15 noncommunicant)

Providence (Jackson, TN) 61 (54 communicant, 7 noncommunicant)

Providence (Kingwood, TX) 87 (67 communicant, 20 noncommunicant)

Bethel (Leesburg, VA) 123 (86 communicant, 37 noncommunicant)

This is an average of 90 members per church, with 20 of the churches less than 90 and only 9 churches with more than 90 members.

In economic theory, a shortage is when demand exceeds supply. And, importantly, demand is the amount that “buyers” are willing and ABLE to purchase. In many cases, there is not a shortage of pastors, just a lack of demand for a pastor at a smaller church.

There are various estimates online of how many congregants you need to have to support a pastor. The lowest estimate I find is 75. Now, 16 of these vacant churches have less than 75 members. This doesn’t mean that they should cease to exist as a church, but it does mean that a pastor is going to find a call there difficult, possibly needing to be bi-vocational. In some places, a pastor might need to serve two churches.

Many estimates however are that 100 members are needed to support a pastor. By that measure there are only 8 vacancies in OPC churches large enough to support a pastor.

With that consideration now added to our understanding, we can see that the pastor shortage isn’t as bad as some believe. In fact, it was a lost worse throughout much of American Presbyterian history. Today, churches that can afford a pastor are likely to find one.

There is a caveat however that we must add. Churches that can afford a pastor are likely to fine one … FOR NOW.

The concern of a pastor shortage grows as we look towards the future. Many pastors are near retirement age. The largest generation in American history – the baby boomers – are retiring as we speak. While seminary enrollment is growing in some places, the number of students studying for the M.Div degree is generally decreasing.

But economic theory which provides us with the term “shortage,” also provides us with the understanding that in such conditions, prices will rise. That is an incentive for men to stay in ministry longer, and for more men to sign up. We shouldn’t expect pastors to retire at 65. Many will continue working to 75 or beyond. Also, some small churches will likely close, lessening the vacancy rate.

Ultimately, for reasons both of economic theory and of theology, I’m not worried about a pastor shortage. The Lord will raise up preachers and His church will continue.