I broke out the old excel to make some charts to better see the trends in the PCUSA (Presbyterian Church USA) since it took that name in a merger in 1983 and until today. Anyone who knows anything of American Presbyterianism knows that the PCUSA is a liberal group and has suffered massive declines over the years. Personally, I think the two go hand in hand. No liberal church group that I know is growing. All are in decline. Surely there are many factors, but my major conclusion has been to say “if the message of the liberal church is no different than that of the world, then why would anyone go to church?” (This is not to say that all congregations there are liberal. Even now I believe there is still a remnant.)
Anyways, the PCUSA has published statistics each year since its founding in the minutes of their General Assembly. These stats no doubt are not perfect, but they are the data I’ve been working with to get a better understanding of the decline.
The first set of charts I created on excel are showing the decline in congregations (each and every year since 1983) and the decline in membership (each and every year since 1983). I actually haven’t yet found the number of congregations from 1984-1992, but it is almost certainly along the same trend as the rest of the data.
Comparing these two charts, it is clear that the membership has gone down significantly more than the number of congregations. There has been a 66% decline in membership, but only a 28% decline in number of congregations. The mean (average) church size has decreased from 265 to 119 members. Actual active attendance is likely considerably less; perhaps half I were to venture a guess.
I then asked “is the rate of decline slowing down or speeding up?”
So I made this chart:
I first made it with just the blue and red lines before adding the yellow.
The blue line shows that the loss of churches peaked about 2012 and has slightly “improved” in more recent years. Perhaps showing that there are fewer churches wanting (and able) to get out.
The red line shows that membership declined at the greatest rate in the mid 2010s. It has also slightly improved to (a yet miserable) negative four percent in recent years.
But I had one more question, which the yellow line helps to answer. “How much of the decline can be attributed to churches leaving the denomination, and how much can be attributed to internal losses at churches that have remained?” It is well know that many PCUSA churches left for the EPC (Evangelical Presbyterian Church) or for ECO (Evangelical Covenant Order) through the years. A few others, like my own, have gone into conservative Presbyterian denominations. By subtracting the “church decline percentage” from the “membership decline percentage” we get the “difference” line. Even if all of the “church decline” is from churches leaving the denomination (and not just closing down), we can see that the majority of losses are still from internal hemorrhaging.
Predictions could be made for the future. Prayers should be offered. But I’m curious to hear others chime in who have interest in such things. What is your read of the past, present, and future of the PCUSA?